US Economic Expansion in Context

Recessions are typically preceded by tighter monetary policy. We acknowledge that we are moving toward that, globally. However, barring any policy missteps, we think growth could slow but is not likely to turn negative. As Churchill famously said, one cannot look farther than one can see. Based on what we know today, there is no reason to call an end to the current bull market. In terms of US economic expansions, the current one could have more room to run (see chart). Please see our Q4 2017 Economic Outlook for more on global markets and asset class assessments.