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David Baker

David Baker

David is Director, Investment Strategy and Research at Laird Norton Wealth Management. While his focus is mainly on the numbers, David also writes the firm’s monthly Flash report, and he is a key contributor to LNWM’s quarterly investment outlooks.

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The Monday Mix: Sept. 17 – 23, 2018

Related Topics: Monday Morning Mix

Headlines discussed at LNWM’s Monday morning briefing:

US-China trade tensions escalated, with 10% US tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.
US stocks hit record highs, shrugging off rising interest rates, high debt levels, trade tensions.
Nearly 70% of investors are negative or neutral on US stocks, recent survey shows.
The S&P 500 shifted major tech stocks into a new sector — Communications Services.
The UK and European Union sparred over Brexit implementation; British pound plunged.

Emerging Market Bonds: What’s Driving the Recent Dive

Related Topics: Investment Management

It’s been a tough year for emerging market bonds. So far in 2018, the total return on emerging market (EM) debt issued in US dollars is negaive 3.4%, and EM debt issued in local currencies has fared much worse — down 9.6%. Meanwhile, high-quality US bonds are down about 1%. Some emerging markets do have major problems: Turkey, Venezuela, and Argentina have lost credibility with investors when it comes to battling inflation.  But most EM economies are much better off than 10 years ago. This begs the question as to why all EM bonds have suffered this year. We think these two factors have created headwinds for the entire sector: … Read More

The Monday Mix: April 30 – May 6, 2018

Related Topics: Investment Management

Headlines discussed at LNWM’s Monday morning briefing:
The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates in April but is expected to in June
Despite robust earnings, US equity returns still mostly flat, as earnings growth priced in.
The stocks of five US tech giants now comprise more than 25% of Nasdaq Index.
US unemployment rate fell to lowest level in 18 years (3.9%), as job growth picked up.
— China and the US remain far apart on trade issues; lack of progress is advantage for China.

The Monday Mix: April 22 – 29, 2018

Related Topics: Monday Morning Mix

Headlines discussed at LNWM’s Monday morning briefing:

Signs of slowing economic growth in Europe pushed down the euro and other local currencies.
US GDP growth for 1st quarter 2018 was 2.3% (initial estimate), down from 2.9% in 4th quarter 2017.
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose past 3%, causing concern about inflationary pressures.
US equities lost momentum on concern about the impact of rising interest rates, earnings.
Emerging market bonds were hurt by strength in the US dollar; impact on commodity prices.

The Monday Mix: April 16 – 22, 2018

Related Topics: Monday Morning Mix

Headlines discussed at LNWM’s Monday morning meeting:

Stock prices are not jumping after strong corporate earnings; good news could largely be baked in.
US long-term rates are not rising as fast as short-term rates, creating a cause of concern for some.
The European Central Bank will likely wait until July to decide when/how stimulus program ends.
Oil prices fell from a 3-year high after President Trump signaled they may be artificially high.
The US and China are making overtures about negotiating new trade terms, to avert trade war.