
Central Bankers Can Do Only So Much
In our latest Quarterly Outlook (July 2016), LNWM CIO Gino Perrina wrote: “The marginal impact of central bank monetary policy seems to be diminishing, which we believe will make government (fiscal) policy more important.” In fact, fiscal policy was a key topic at the annual retreat for central bankers in Grand Teton National Park last week. The New York Times reported that “a surprising message” came from the lunch time speaker, Christopher A. Sims, a Nobel laureate in economics and Princeton professor. Sims told his audience, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen: Increased government spending [aka fiscal policy] is required to lift the world’s major economies out of stagnation. The implication is that the unprecedented level of monetary stimulus provided by central banks since the 2008 global financial crisis has reached its limits.